Portfolio returns for Sep 202

I felt it would be good to track the returns regularly since they fluctuate frequently depending on the stock market.

Here are the movements for this month. There is an upward tick across most of my portfolios. Only Crypto has gone down a bit.

                             

For the Robo-Advisors, also an upward trend across all my portfolios. It's interesting how correlated/aligned the Stashaway General Investing and Endowus General Wealth Acc funds are. After tracking Syfe Reit+ since Jan 2024, it has finally turned positive. It was a long wait. Hope it never sees negative returns ever again.

                                            

Additionally, I think it will be interesting to see the breakdown of my portfolios in percentages (below). 

                                  

Market trends from the last 30 days:

Key Market Events

• The U.S. Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, its first since 2024, prompting expectations of two more potential cuts by year-end.

• Strong earnings momentum, especially in the technology sector, has helped push indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq to all-time highs.

• International and emerging markets generally followed the upward trend, with robust performances seen in countries like Brazil, China, and Korea, while European markets were more mixed.

September Seasonality and Volatility

• Traditionally, September is a challenging month—often referred to as the “September Effect”—with heightened volatility due to corporate profit-taking, fiscal policy deadlines, and investor caution ahead of quarterly earnings and government budget discussions.

• Despite these seasonal pressures, the recent Fed rate cut and positive economic data have helped offset negative sentiment, keeping markets buoyant.

Effects on the Stock Market

• Major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) saw notable gains, with the S&P 500 up more than 1% and the Nasdaq over 2% higher in the past week alone, marking several consecutive weeks of market strength.

• Small-cap and value stocks outperformed large caps during August and September but still remain generally undervalued relative to history.

• Key market sectors driving growth included technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary, while real estate and consumer staples lagged.

• Rate cuts and muted inflation expectations contributed to a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, supporting a favorable investment outlook for equities.

On the Singapore Market

• SGX launched two new indices, iEdge Singapore Next 50 and a liquidity-weighted version, to track the next 50 largest mainboard companies after the STI.
  
  
• These indices aim to boost investor interest and market liquidity by tracking companies with a minimum $100,000 median daily traded value and $100 million market cap.
  
  
• Analysts believe new indices could foster new investment products, improve investor interest, and increase liquidity, potentially catalysing funding and IPO momentum.

How much gold to cause a plane to tilt?

Fascinating story by Ng Kok Song about shipping gold back from London to Singapore.  

Apparently there was so much gold that it caused the plane to tilt.

When I heard this, I almost choked on my water.

Because for that to happen, there must be a lot of gold.

I asked ChatGPT to estimate exactly how much for me:

I heard this story: Once we were shifting the gold back from london to singapore. Everything was laid out nicely. But then the passengers disembarked. Once they did, the plane tilted. So we had to call the passengers back to be seated so that we can first unload the gold. How much gold was there, give your best estimate

ChatGPT:

That’s a fascinating story — and it does sound like one of those aviation logistics anecdotes where weight and balance come into play. Let’s try to reason through an estimate step by step.

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1. Aircraft balance considerations

On large passenger jets, the weight distribution is crucial. Cargo (including gold) is loaded in the hold, typically below the cabin. If the aircraft’s center of gravity shifts too far aft (tail-heavy) once passengers disembark, the nose can lift and the plane can “tail-tip.” This actually happens sometimes even without gold — e.g., if aft cargo is heavy and passengers exit before forward cargo is unloaded.

So, the gold must have been a very substantial weight, positioned aft.

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2. Weight of passengers vs gold

• A full widebody aircraft might have ~200–300 passengers.

• Average passenger + luggage weight = ~100 kg.

• Total = maybe 20–30 tonnes for all passengers combined.

For the story to happen, the gold’s weight must be comparable to or larger than the passenger weight, because passengers had to sit down to counterbalance it.

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3. How much gold could that be in tonnes?

• Gold is very dense: 1 m³ ≈ 19.3 tonnes.

• Central banks ship gold in 400 oz “Good Delivery” bars (~12.4 kg each).

• 1 tonne = ~80 bars.

If unloading required passengers to stay seated, I’d estimate at least 5–15 tonnes of gold, maybe more. That’s a few cubic feet at most (gold is compact).

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4. Cross-check with historical precedent

Singapore’s gold reserves today are around 200+ tonnes (worth >US$16 billion at 2025 prices). If the story is about a reserve transfer from London, it likely wasn’t the entire stock, but a tranche. Historical records suggest shipments of tens of tonnes were typical when repatriating gold.

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✅ Best estimate:
The shipment was likely on the order of 10–20 tonnes of gold — enough to outweigh hundreds of passengers and affect aircraft balance.

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Would you like me to run a more detailed aircraft balance calculation (e.g., assuming a 747 or DC-10, cargo hold positions, passenger weights) to tighten the estimate further?

I followed up with:

How much is that in $

ChatGPT:

Let’s put numbers to it.

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1. Gold price today (2025)

• As of September 2025, gold trades around USD 2,400 per troy ounce (≈ 31.1 g).

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2. Weight conversions

• 1 tonne = 1,000 kg = 1,000,000 g.

• 1 troy ounce = 31.103 g.

• So, 1 tonne of gold ≈ 32,150 troy ounces.

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3. Value per tonne

$$32,150 \,\text{oz} \times 2,400 \,\$/\text{oz} = 77,160,000 \,\$$$

≈ USD 77 million per tonne.

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4. Value of 10–20 tonnes

• 10 tonnes ≈ 770 million USD.

• 20 tonnes ≈ 1.54 billion USD.

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✅ So if the plane carried 10–20 tonnes, that shipment was worth roughly USD 0.8–1.5 billion at today’s prices.

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If this plane got hijacked, I can't imagine what will happen 🤯

On lying flat and 内卷

There is always much to learn from SM Lee's talks. 

Here is a recent one he gave at NUS. 

While he addressed the usual questions of geopolitics and how the world stage has changed with Trump's tariffs, there was a question that stuck with me.

The question is about lying flat or tangping. 

The question came from a Chinese student at 1:00:30 mark:

"Senior Minister Lee, you've mentioned that today's youth have better conditions and should not 'lie flat' (tangping). However, in the past, life was harder, but opportunities were more abundant and competition was less intense. Now, with many industries well-established and a highly educated population, it feels like there are fewer opportunities and much stronger competition. Do you agree that today's young people face these challenges, and what can we do to address them?" 

SM Lee's reply at 1:03:15 mark:

On Competition and Opportunity

"Is life harder now than before? I think the competition is more visible. In China, they have a term for this: neijuan (内卷), meaning 'excessive intensive competition.' This is reflected in the '996' work culture and the constant demand for availability. Despite this fierce competition, opportunities are still abundant. It's a misconception that there are no new ideas to exploit. The emergence of AI is a recent example of a completely new field that has become incredibly exciting in just a few years. While you must be prepared to work hard, the opportunities are there.

Generational Differences

Comparing your generation to your parents', the level of prosperity and living conditions was much lower for them. Fewer people had the opportunity to attend university. Today, you are able to do things they couldn't have even imagined, like taking a gap year or flying off for a long weekend to Phuket or Bali. These are options your parents simply didn't have. Work-life balance is important, but with all these advantages, you should not simply relax and prosper. You have a duty to build, create, and make a difference with the opportunities you've been given."

He ended with:

Please do something. You can do it.

Call to Action

As we navigate the competitive landscape of today's world, it is essential to remember that we have the power to create change and impact. By seizing the opportunities presented to us, we can not only further our own success but also contribute to the greater good. Take action, be proactive, and make the most of the opportunities that come your way. Remember, you have the ability to make a difference – so go out there and do it!

By embracing competition and recognizing the abundance of opportunities available, we can navigate the modern landscape with confidence and purpose. Let's build a successful career, make a difference in the world, and create a future filled with endless possibilities.

Dividends for Aug 2025 - Towards 5k a month

Here are my dividends for Aug 2025:

                                    

So I collected $6,220.92 in dividends for this month. 

 
In case you are wondering, some stocks are repeated because I have 2 brokerage accounts.

Here are my monthly dividends over the last 6 years (you can see this month is my largest dividend harvest ever in a single month):

                                 

Here are the dividends I collected every year until the current day:

Already surpassed the yearly dividends from 2 years ago.

Here is the progress of my average monthly dividends over the years:

                         

The value for 2025 is just based on 8 data points though, and it may decline as we get more data points.

I plan to first receive $2500 (achieved), then finally $5000 in dividends every month on average.

Additionally, I share the interest I received from the various banks for the deposits this month:

                                        

Also, in this month, I made $84.00 from my side hustle - GrabFood delivery. 

All in, I made $7,030.10 this month from dividends, interest, and food delivery.

Onwards!   

 

Finally found an OPTIMAL way to move money from US to SG

I have a significant amount of money tied up in my Citibank USA account. 

I have always wanted to regularly transfer money back into my SGP accounts to do DCA, but it took me quite some time to find the optimal method.

Below, I describe the money transfer patterns I found and the pros and cons of each, and the last one is the one I find most optimal by far. 

At the beginning, I transferred the cash into Singapore using a traditional method:

Pros of the above method:

• No fees incurred when transferring from Citibank USA to Citibank SGP

Cons of the above method:

• USD is converted to SGD in Citibank, subject to the bank's exchange rates, which is not ideal
• SGD is further converted back to USD, again subjected to IBKR's exchange rates - better than bank, but still not ideal.

The thinking is that: wouldn't it be nice if I could get USD into my IBKR USD account directly, without having to incur the exchange rate fees? 

Enter Wise.

Pros of the above method:

• No exchange rate fees incurred, since all in USD throughout

Cons of the above method:

• Incur Citibank fee (25 USD) and Wise fee (6.11 USD + 1.13 USD)

However, since the fees are fixed, there exists an amount at which the above method is superior to the Traditional Transfer Method. 

Based on my calculations, as long as I transfer >16,000 USD, then even though I incur the Citibank and Wise fees listed above, it still makes sense because the Wise exchange rates (USD to SGD) are better than Citibank's. 

This brings about another issue: since I am doing DCA, there is a large amount of USD in my IBKR account that just sits there and does nothing.

Enter Chocolate Finance.

Instead of letting the USD sit in IBKR without earning any interest, I can move it first into Chocolate Finance USD account. Chocolate Finance USD account offers interest rates as such:

• 4.3% p.a. on first US$20k
• 4% p.a. on next US$30k
• Above US$50k target 4% (not guaranteed)

Then, when I finally need the USD to invest, I can move it into IBKR USD account anytime.

The only issue is that I have to incur Wise fees of 10.38 USD for transferring an amount of 7,500 USD from Wise into DBS MyAccount.

How long do I have to hold this amount in Chocolate Finance to make back this 10.38 USD? According to ChatGPT, it is only 12 days!

Sounds like a good deal to me. 

What do you think? Do you have a better method?

Wrapping up my 27th month of Financial Independence [FI]

I just finished my 27th month of FI (Financial Independence) in Aug 2025.

Below is what I ate and did for fun, and a record of my expenses.

Eating

Simple but nice.

                                            

Tiong Bahru bakery. TBH I feel it is way overpriced.

Try something new.

Coffee is too strong. Can't sleep at night.

Usual home-cooked avocado wrap meal.

Fun

This month brought my kids to rock climbing at T3, followed by a McDonald's tea break, where they had loads of fun.

Had a free pocket of time and did a nice walk here.

Expenses (Discretionary only)

Not sure how it happened, but the eating budget exploded this month. Other than that, the rest of the budgets are OK.

 

Eating Out Target: $650

Eating Out Actual: $861.60

Household Target: $600

Household Actual: $225.47

Travel Target: $100

Travel Actual: $4

Entertainment Target: $50

Entertainment Actual: $80

Personal Target: $250

Personal Actual: $176.60 (made a donation to Gaza relief)

Onwards to the next month of FI! 

  

  

STI entered Stratosphere

STI has been on a good run lately.

In fact, it has already broken through 4,236 as mentioned in my previous post.

https://financeopti.blogspot.com/2025/07/sky-is-limit-for-sti.html 

It has also reached an all-time high of 4,301 on September 2, 2025.

It has retraced a little bit from this ATH, but it is only a matter of time before it will rise above 4,300 again.

I guess the major economic headwind coming into view is Trump's tariffs. Here are the next critical dates:

• Trump extended the “tariff truce” with China until November 10, 2025, preventing a planned hike (which would have raised US tariffs on Chinese goods from 30% to as high as 145%) and keeping most tariffs capped at 30%

• A US federal appeals court recently ruled that many of Trump’s global tariffs were illegal, but allowed them to remain until October 14, 2025, pending a Supreme Court appeal; the administration is threatening to “unwind” trade deals if the court blocks its tariffs.

• The elimination of “de minimis” exemptions means nearly all imports, including low-value packages, are now subject to tariffs, causing supply chain disruption and raising prices for US consumers.