After 5 months of FIRE, can I still FIRE?

 I wanted to check after 5 months of no pay, can I still afford to FIRE.

Especially with the recent market downturn. Currently, both SP500 and Nasdaq are in correction:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-10-27-2023/card/the-nasdaq-composite-is-on-track-to-enter-a-correction-btCPOJVi7uczdASFmhlr

The main culprits are the Israel-Hamas war, high inflation, and the stalemate of the Ukraine-Russia war. 

I did my spreadsheets and arrived at the below:

So my starting balance is still > required savings, which means I am still FIRE.

What happens if my starting balance falls below the required savings? Hmm I'm not sure actually...

Portfolio Snapshot - CAGR and Breakeven Price Oct 2023

Here's a snapshot of my current SGP portfolio:

The column 'cagr' represents the compound annual growth rate of that stock.

The column 'cagr_inc_div_drp' shows the compound annual growth rate including dividends paid out and additional stocks obtained through distribution reinvestment plans.

The column 'cagr_benchmark' shows the compound annual growth rate of the benchmark. The benchmark is the SPDR STI ETF, stock code 'ES3'.

The column 'cagr_benchmark_status' shows yes if we beat the benchmark.

The column 'returns_one_year' shows the returns in the past year.

The columns 'cagr', 'cagr_inc_div_drp', 'cagr_benchmark', and 'returns_one_year' are shown in percentages.

Here's a comparison of the stats with previous years:

Here's another snapshot of my portfolio based on the breakeven price:

The column 'price' indicates the current price of the stock.

The column 'breakeven_price' indicates the breakeven price of the stock with dividends and stocks from the distribution reinvestment plan included. As long as the price of the stock is above the breakeven price, I can sell the stock for a profit.

The column 'breakeven_price_status' indicates if the stock price is above the breakeven price.

Here's a comparison of the stats with previous years:

Here are the returns of my portfolio versus the benchmark:

If 2022 was a bad year for stocks, 2023 is even worse. Mainly due to the ongoing Ukraine war with no end in sight, and now with the Israel-Hamas war. Interest rates are still at an all-time high. On the other hand, as long as interest rates start to fall, my bond and REITs are in position. 

Portfolio Returns for Oct 2023

I have been sharing the returns of my portfolio in the previous posts:

http://financeopti.blogspot.com/2022/05/this-too-shall-pass.html

http://financeopti.blogspot.com/2022/07/this-too-shall-pass-part-2.html

http://financeopti.blogspot.com/2022/10/this-too-shall-pass-part-3.html

http://financeopti.blogspot.com/2022/11/portfolio-returns-for-nov-2022.html

I felt it would be good to track the returns on a regular basis since the returns will fluctuate from time to time depending on the stock market. 

During the time period from Jul - Oct 2023, most of my portfolios took a hit:

The USA portfolio looks like its moving upwards, but it is mostly because I sold off 2 of my most unprofitable stocks (digital payments) in the last month. 

Here's a recap of the major market events (positive events in green and negative events in red):

• Sep 2023: It is now 18 months into the Ukraine war with no respite in sight. 
• Sep 2023: US Fed signals one more interest rate hike at the end of the year, and high-interest rates will persist for some time
• Sep 2023: Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thousands of refugees are fleeing into Armenia after Azerbaijan claimed control of an Armenian enclave inside its territory. 

• Oct 2023: Conflict between Hama in the Gaza Strip and Israel broke out after Hamas launched a terrorist attack by sneaking into Israeli territory. Now Israel is preparing for a ground assault into the Gaza Strip. 

• Oct 2023: US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met with Xi Jinping and noted 'serious engagement'. This is the first f2f meeting between high-level US-China leaders in a while. 

Is there any more good news? I can't think of much to be honest...

After writing these posts for some time now, I realize there are more bad events than good...

As I have insinuated a few times, as long as I do not need the money, the plan is to hold even if there is a WW3. Though of course, I wish that will never come. 

Wrapping up my Fourth Month of FIRE

I just finished my fourth month of FIRE in Sep 2023. 

Below are what I ate, what I did for fun, the amount of exercise I managed to do, and a record of my expenses. 

Eating

I've eaten this a few times already. I believe this is a hidden gem. 

A lot of newspaper clippings about their chicken wing. 

I think the chicken wing was OK, but the rest is pretty standard. 

Fun

This month was the September school holidays! Below are the places I went to:

Jubilee Park

No prizes for guessing this one

Sunway Big Box in JB

Cycling along rail corridor

All the way to Pang Sua Woodlands

Exercise

On the fitness side, I definitely walked more than in my previous desk-bound job. 

Expenses

I busted some of my expenses this month. Hardly surprising I guess, since you got to spend to have fun...

Eating Out Target: $650

Eating Out Actual: $615.88

Household Target: $600

Household Actual: $643.77 (some enrichment classes for my kid)

Travel Target: $100

Travel Actual: $137.49 (petrol, some grab rides to airport)

Entertainment Target: $50

Entertainment Actual: $58.48

Personal Target: $100

Personal Actual: $1,290.70 (Signed up for a course)

I only managed to find time to do a few food deliveries this month. All in, I only managed to earn $10.50 this month.

Onwards to the fifth month of FIRE!!