Friday, February 16, 2024

Portfolio Returns for Feb 2024

I felt it would be good to track the returns on a regular basis since the returns will fluctuate from time to time depending on the stock market.

Here are the movements for this month:

The USA fund is the best performer, one head above the rest. The SPY fund is also on an upward trend, indicating a strong US market.

Cryptocurrency fund is also moving up...hopefully, it will be positive eventually 😓

All other funds unfortunately had little movement. These are mainly in the boring Singapore market. 

I also started tracking my robo-advisor portfolios. As of now Syfe and Stashaway have the highest time-weighted returns. 

The Syfe reit portfolio is unfortunately still negative but with interest rates coming down, I hope it will recover by this year!

Key events in the last 30 days:

  • Economic data: US wholesale prices increased more than anticipated, gaining 0.3 percent in January on higher service costs.

"While Oxford Economics expects that the wholesale inflation data is unlikely to change the Fed’s planned path for rate cuts this year, it added in a separate report that those calling for a quick drop in rates will probably be disappointed."

  • Federal Reserve: The Fed maintained its hawkish stance on interest rates, and a cut in interest rates in Mar is not expected. This caused the market to drop, though for only 1 day. 

  • Earnings season: Strong earnings reports from major companies like Apple and Alphabet boosted investor confidence.

  • Geopolitical concerns: The ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions with China remained, but did not cause major market disruptions.

  • Recessions: UK and Japan entered recessions (but the Japan stock market is at an all-time high!)

  • Layoffs: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Salesforce, Snap, Zoom, Cisco all announced job cuts

There should be a correction in the US market soon, which is to be expected after such a strong rise. And after the correction, rise again!

I thought I would also put it in clarity here some well-understood principles:

When interest rates go down:
  • USD will fall (ie. it takes less SGD to buy USD)
  • Stocks will rise (because make more sense to deploy your money into stocks for better returns instead of bank deposits)
  • Bond prices will rise (hence bond yields will fall)
  • Reits will rise (due to less borrowing costs)
  • Returns from money market funds will fall (returns from MMF are dependent on interest rates)
What this means for me: money from my MMF has to be re-deployed soonest. 

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